When do you realistically see this thing being released?

[AegisXIII]

Eh this isn't really true. Kingdom Hearts (and Final Fantasy and Resident Evil, etc..) are absolutely AAA games. No way they have a budget under 100 million dollars. KH3 would have taken 4-5 years even without the engine change and FF7R took about 5 years as well. FF7R2 will be an iteration of the first game and will still take 4 years to come out. AAA game development today tends to take around 4 years at minimum. Kojima is kind of an exception but the vast majority of big budget games take time to make now. I'm not expecting KH4 until 2025 at the earliest considering it looks like FF7R2 is set for early 2024. You're right that Japanese games in general are quicker to make because of smaller budgets but games like KH and FF are not examples of that at all. They're just like western games in terms of development time

I would even add that Kingdom Hearts games take much longer to make than regular AAA titles due to the discussions with Disney regarding the use of their brand.

 

[Chie]

You're right that Japanese games in general are quicker to make because of smaller budgets but games like KH and FF are not examples of that at all. They're just like western games in terms of development time

Logically they probably shouldn't be? What I'm thinking of for "western AAA" is the kind of big event game that mainstream gamers buy and play because it's the only game coming out that's on their radar whatsoever, and those tend to have enormous worlds, much more extreme levels of visual detail, 100 sidequests, etc. Though, even TLOU2 (which I understand is linear...???) took six years, I'm reading?

The visual fidelity and scope of KH3 is smaller than all those games and the basic structure is the same as it was on PS2. So I think they probably shouldn't be comparable - don't get me wrong, I can see that it often is! But I'm saying that it shouldn't be, and game directors themselves are feeling that. I'm sure Nomura isn't happy about how the first decade of KH (2002-2012) had seven full length action RPGs, but the second decade (2013-2022) had, um, one.

 

[AegisXIII]

Logically they probably shouldn't be? What I'm thinking of for "western AAA" is the kind of big event game that mainstream gamers buy and play because it's the only game coming out that's on their radar whatsoever, and those tend to have enormous worlds, much more extreme levels of visual detail, 100 sidequests, etc. Though, even TLOU2 (which I understand is linear...???) took six years, I'm reading?

The visual fidelity and scope of KH3 is smaller than all those games and the basic structure is the same as it was on PS2. So I think they probably shouldn't be comparable - don't get me wrong, I can see that it often is! But I'm saying that it shouldn't be, and game directors themselves are feeling that. I'm sure Nomura isn't happy about how the first decade of KH (2002-2012) had seven full length action RPGs, but the second decade (2013-2022) had, um, one.

Now that you mention it, it's true that we got the first 7 titles in the first decade, while the last one got one title and a half. Mobile doesn't count.

 

[Chie]

And don't get me wrong, short action-RPG (0.2), movie (X Back Cover) and rhythm game (Melody of Memory) are all valid formats and legitimate entries in the series. But it definitely puts the game industry into perspective very starkly, doesn't it? The "first decade" included Re:CoM as well, a full conversion!

(Note to readers: Please do not reply to this to tell me that the PS3 ports are somehow 'new entries'.)

 

[AegisXIII]

And don't get me wrong, short action-RPG (0.2), movie (X Back Cover) and rhythm game (Melody of Memory) are all valid formats and legitimate entries in the series. But it definitely puts the game industry into perspective very starkly, doesn't it? The "first decade" included Re:CoM as well, a full conversion!

(Note to readers: Please do not reply to this to tell me that the PS3 ports are somehow 'new entries'.)

The remasters however offer a different metric. If the measure is the amount of produced cutscenes, then the second decade might beat the first, thanks to days, recoded and X being movies for a total of 8 hours.
Then you add 0.2 which is one hour, KH3 which is 10, reMind which is around 2 and MoM which is 30minutes and you get around 21-22 hours of cutscenes. This is more than the first decade.

 

[NoWay]

Nowadays it’s so hard to be a KH fan. We didn’t get any game (that isn’t mobile) in 2021 and 2022. It’d be really frustrating to not get any console game a third year in a row.
Still hoping for anything new releasing in 2023.

 

[AegisXIII]

Nowadays it’s so hard to be a KH fan. We didn’t get any game (that isn’t mobile) in 2021 and 2022. It’d be really frustrating to not get any console game a third year in a row.
Still hoping for anything new releasing in 2023.

X remake. 🙏

 

[JJ1020]

I'm not a video game developer, but from a business perspective, it would make sense that Square Enix would instead focus on one major title at a time. 2023 is going to be the year of Final Fantasy. We know that 16 is releasing in late June 2023, and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth will be sometime between October 2023-March 2024, so Kingdom Hearts 4 will not be released in either window.

If I was a betting man, I'd say that Kingdom Hearts 4 is further along in development than some people are expecting. It already has completed combat scenarios and voice acting, which KH3 didn't have when its first teasers were unveiled. A big part of the reason KH3 took so long is that they had to build all the assets from scratch and switched engines a couple of times. Further, development was hampered because Square's teams were spread too thin.

With FF16 and FF7Rebirth all having different directors, it stands to reason that KH4's development is not likely to be as prolonged. Tetsuya Nomura is probably devoting most of his energy to Missing Link and KH4 at this point.

With news of a closed beta for Missing Link, we can safely assume that game is probably getting closer to release. Likely, sometime in mid-2023.

What does this mean for KH4? It further reduces the amount of workload the teams at Square have. Combine this with the fact that Square Enix has recently pared down their business to be more focused on its core games, which further clears resources.

As for a timeframe; My prediction is that KH4 will be released sometime between Q3 2024-Q2 2025. I'm leaning toward Square Enix and Disney wanting the game to release worldwide by November 2024 to make their year-end results look as positive as possible.

 

[HakaishinChampa]

December 2024 - March 2025

 

[the red monster]

2025.
XVI june 2023
rebirth 2024
i think square will want to focus on one big release per-year. they also have dragon quest 12 to release somewhere in between.

 

[horto12485]

Depending if we get it on the PS5 either 2024 or 2025

 

[AegisXIII]

2025.
XVI june 2023
rebirth 2024
i think square will want to focus on one big release per-year. they also have dragon quest 12 to release somewhere in between.

In term of fiscal year, it appears rebirth will be released in the 2023 period. I can see KH4 getting released in the 2024 period, which can go up until the start of 2025. But they will need to release something at least to keep people ready in the meantime. The wait for KH3 was the remasters era, so what are they gonna do while we wait. Probably Missing Link and Ux console remake in Unreal Engine 4.

 

[the red monster]

In term of fiscal year, it appears rebirth will be released in the 2023 period. I can see KH4 getting released in the 2024 period, which can go up until the start of 2025. But they will need to release something at least to keep people ready in the meantime. The wait for KH3 was the remasters era, so what are they gonna do while we wait. Probably Missing Link and Ux console remake in Unreal Engine 4.

they want it to release around end 2023/early 2024 but it doesn't mean it will make it in time.
and yeah i'm also guessing they saving something UX related for 2023/4

 

[Disney Adventurer]

It was a pipe's dream to begin with but I think the late 2023 ship has definitely sailed.
I'm going with the 2nd half of 2024 at the earliest and sometime in 2025 at the latest.
Depends on how much foreshadowing Square wants in Missing-Link whenever it drops
and then of course there's Nomura's cryptic statement about the franchise at Second Breath concert to consider as well.

 

[Oracle Spockanort]

My highly uneducated guess: after some of the KH staff worked on FFXVI, they were offered FFXVII.

My further guess is that it has not impacted development on KH4 itself, but it has changed KH moving forward.

That’s it. That’s my guess.

 

[JJ1020]

I think once both FF16 and FF7 Rebirth are released over the next 12 months we'll know for sure. My guess is anywhere between Q3 2024-Q4 2025.

 

[2 quid is good]

I don't think late 2023 has sailed. FF16 took 2.5 years from announcement to release, and it seems like KH4 was further along in its development in April 2022 than FF16 was in September 2020.

We've had a whole year of radio silence, which, taking in Square's new policy of marketing games, doesn't seem like a bad sign to me. They're either waiting on FF7R2 and FF16 to release, or maybe just one, before pushing KH4.

Q4 2023 still seems possible to me, if a bit unlikely. And even without considering SQEX other games I would have pegged KH4 for an early to mid 2024 release.

What really worries me is Nomura's promise he made way back in 2019 of "rethinking" worldwide releases because of how COLOSSALLY terrible KH3s release was.

SE: *make WW release date 4 days after Japan and on a Tuesday*
Europe as a collective: lol we release games on the weekend *sells KH3 early anyway*
SE: How could we have predicted this? We must go back to 3 month gaps between release windows to stop this from happening again >:[

 

[Chaser]

I know it was a smaller, less important game (that still leaked lol) but MoM only have a two day difference between Japan and global releases was a good sign to me that we won’t get a release delay.

The decision is also not solely up to Nomura as well so I’m glad there’ll be people who can decide on that stuff without the personal grudges haha

 

[2 quid is good]

I know it was a smaller, less important game (that still leaked lol) but MoM only have a two day difference between Japan and global releases was a good sign to me that we won’t get a release delay.

The decision is also not solely up to Nomura as well so I’m glad there’ll be people who can decide on that stuff without the personal grudges haha

I don't know why kh is funny about it. FF games get full EU dubbing and simultaneous releases. They even sometimes get VA patches afterwards. But KH is still awkward about that.

 

[Luminary]

Optimistically, we could get FFXVI in June, FFVII Rebirth in December/January, and KH4 April-June 2024. I don’t think KH4 will be any later than January 2025 though.

I hope once XVI is out, we’ll get Rebirth’s official date and KH4’s release window.

My highly uneducated guess: after some of the KH staff worked on FFXVI, they were offered FFXVII.

My further guess is that it has not impacted development on KH4 itself, but it has changed KH moving forward.

That’s it. That’s my guess.

Maybe they’re forming a new team for FF17 out of them and the people from Luminous since it is being dissolved. Development of main numbered titles could alternate between them and CBU3. Then the Remake series team could stay focused on that and eventually move to other Remake projects. It would certainly help SE keep a steady flow of AAA content.

But if so, I hope it doesn’t have too big of an impact on the KH team. Remind felt like they were finally hitting their stride with the gameplay, so hoping it doesn’t get set back. Can’t help but be a little nervous after the original KH team was pulled to Versus XIII back in the day and never came back.