Kids that have never played KH before are not going to be asking for it during the holidays just because of Frozen.
Frozen, Big Hero 6, Toy Story, Tangled, there's plenty there that if Disney markets right will have kids noticing and wanting to play.
Their target demographic is going to end up being twenty somethings that grew up with the series and then they’ll pull in some kids too.
They have a large target demographic, especially since Disney is stepping in this time. Adults are certainly one of them, but kids are a big part. They are treating this like an actual Disney game as opposed to the previous releases which just had Disney off the side approving certain worlds and concepts.
They’re not going to want to compete with CoD, Assassins creed, battlefield, and whatever other first party titles will be out then.
This is Square Enix's Japanese flagship title this year. In a question about Square's current business year, the President of Square Enix specifically singled out Kingdom Hearts 3. He brings up the Western studio games, which is going to be the third Tomb Raider game, but then specifically brings up KH3.
GamesTM: What's the focus for Square Enix in the next business year?
Matsuda: Well, we're focussing on everything! If you look at the HD games line-up, most of the core titles in that line-up are going to be Western studio developed. We've also got Kingdom Hearts III...
That says to me, more than anything, is that Square Enix are treating this like any other big game of theirs. Of course the CoD series will have its devoted fanbase picking up the game, as well as a casual audience, but KH3 will have that as well since the series are appealing to different kinds of people.
Also of note, main title Assassin's Creed games have gone bi-yearly, the next main title should launch in 2019. They haven't announced it, but Watch_Dogs 3 could launch this holiday, just like Watch_Dogs 2 in 2016 (and it is a great game, y'all should play).
If the game isn’t ready by october I’d be surprised if they didn’t just hold it til Q1.
They are absolutely not going to delay the game till next year. Did you see / forget the responses this fanbase had when Square promised KH3 news in the winter of 2016/2017 but then didn't deliver? That was insane, and if Square promised 2018 and didn't deliver because they don't want to launch the game alongside annual releases, then there's going to be a massive outcry of disappointed fans.
FFXV did alright but that’s still a much bigger franchise than KH even with how big the series has gotten. I have three friends that loved KH1 and KH2, but haven’t played since. They’re excited for KH3, but it’s not a priority for them if it’s coming out during the holiday season.
Final Fantasy XV did great by having a big marketing push with a game that appealed to a more Western audience, which the previous Final Fantasy games never had. Kingdom Hearts is universal, since we all know Toy Story and we all know Frozen.
I also wouldn't use your three friends as a representative of how sales could go. They do reflect what some people will decide, in which case those people may hold back till post-Christmas sales, or ask for the game for Christmas. But a sample size of three is not a good way to gauge if Square should or shouldn't release KH3 at a certain time.
The release date for KH3 has been chosen for a long time. Osaka has been working towards that date for a long time. Square Enix would have factored in other franchises annual releases when choosing that date. They feel confident, Disney feels confident, and I feel confident that this game is going to grab the attention of a more casual fanbase better than any game since Kingdom Hearts 2 has.
